Florida Voting Age Population (VAP) Projections (2026–2035) at the Block Level We have created this resource to help individuals and organizations understand how their state’s population may change in the coming years, if current trends continue. There are many factors that these projections cannot take into account, such as future changes in immigration patterns or how racial and ethnic groups are categorized in the data. ## RDH Date Retrieval 10/29/2025 ## Sources 2020 Block-Level Population Data from the [U.S. Census Bureau's 2020 Redistricting Data (P.L. 94-171)](https://api.census.gov/data/2020/dec/pl/variables.html). 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) Tract-Level Population Data from the [U.S. Census Bureau](https://api.census.gov/data/2023/acs/acs5/variables.html). 2026-2035 Population Projection Data from the Redistricting Data Hub [(RDH)](https://redistrictingdatahub.org/). ## Fields: Field Name Description ------------------------------------------------------- GEOID Census Geography Identifier STATEFP State FIP Identifier COUNTYFP County FIP Identifier STATE State Name COUNTY County Name Projected_TotalPop_VAP_2026 Projected Total Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2026 Projected_HispanicOrLatino_VAP_2026 Projected Hispanic or Latino Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2026 Projected_WhiteAloneNotHisp_VAP_2026 Projected Non-Hispanic White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2026 Projected_WhiteAlone_VAP_2026 Projected White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2026 Projected_BlackOrAfAmAlone_VAP_2026 Projected Black or African-American Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2026 Projected_AmIndianOrAKNativeAlone_VAP_2026 Projected American Indian or Alaskan Native Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2026 Projected_AsianAlone_VAP_2026 Projected Asian Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2026 Projected_PacificIslanderAlone_VAP_2026 Projected Pacific Islander Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2026 Projected_OtherRaceAlone_VAP_2026 Projected Some Other Race Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2026 Projected_TwoOrMoreRaces_VAP_2026 Projected Two or More Races Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2026 Projected_TotalPop_VAP_2027 Projected Total Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2027 Projected_HispanicOrLatino_VAP_2027 Projected Hispanic or Latino Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2027 Projected_WhiteAloneNotHisp_VAP_2027 Projected Non-Hispanic White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2027 Projected_WhiteAlone_VAP_2027 Projected White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2027 Projected_BlackOrAfAmAlone_VAP_2027 Projected Black or African-American Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2027 Projected_AmIndianOrAKNativeAlone_VAP_2027 Projected American Indian or Alaskan Native Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2027 Projected_AsianAlone_VAP_2027 Projected Asian Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2027 Projected_PacificIslanderAlone_VAP_2027 Projected Pacific Islander Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2027 Projected_OtherRaceAlone_VAP_2027 Projected Some Other Race Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2027 Projected_TwoOrMoreRaces_VAP_2027 Projected Two or More Races Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2027 Projected_TotalPop_VAP_2028 Projected Total Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2028 Projected_HispanicOrLatino_VAP_2028 Projected Hispanic or Latino Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2028 Projected_WhiteAloneNotHisp_VAP_2028 Projected Non-Hispanic White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2028 Projected_WhiteAlone_VAP_2028 Projected White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2028 Projected_BlackOrAfAmAlone_VAP_2028 Projected Black or African-American Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2028 Projected_AmIndianOrAKNativeAlone_VAP_2028 Projected American Indian or Alaskan Native Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2028 Projected_AsianAlone_VAP_2028 Projected Asian Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2028 Projected_PacificIslanderAlone_VAP_2028 Projected Pacific Islander Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2028 Projected_OtherRaceAlone_VAP_2028 Projected Some Other Race Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2028 Projected_TwoOrMoreRaces_VAP_2028 Projected Two or More Races Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2028 Projected_TotalPop_VAP_2029 Projected Total Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2029 Projected_HispanicOrLatino_VAP_2029 Projected Hispanic or Latino Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2029 Projected_WhiteAloneNotHisp_VAP_2029 Projected Non-Hispanic White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2029 Projected_WhiteAlone_VAP_2029 Projected White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2029 Projected_BlackOrAfAmAlone_VAP_2029 Projected Black or African-American Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2029 Projected_AmIndianOrAKNativeAlone_VAP_2029 Projected American Indian or Alaskan Native Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2029 Projected_AsianAlone_VAP_2029 Projected Asian Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2029 Projected_PacificIslanderAlone_VAP_2029 Projected Pacific Islander Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2029 Projected_OtherRaceAlone_VAP_2029 Projected Some Other Race Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2029 Projected_TwoOrMoreRaces_VAP_2029 Projected Two or More Races Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2029 Projected_TotalPop_VAP_2030 Projected Total Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2030 Projected_HispanicOrLatino_VAP_2030 Projected Hispanic or Latino Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2030 Projected_WhiteAloneNotHisp_VAP_2030 Projected Non-Hispanic White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2030 Projected_WhiteAlone_VAP_2030 Projected White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2030 Projected_BlackOrAfAmAlone_VAP_2030 Projected Black or African-American Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2030 Projected_AmIndianOrAKNativeAlone_VAP_2030 Projected American Indian or Alaskan Native Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2030 Projected_AsianAlone_VAP_2030 Projected Asian Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2030 Projected_PacificIslanderAlone_VAP_2030 Projected Pacific Islander Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2030 Projected_OtherRaceAlone_VAP_2030 Projected Some Other Race Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2030 Projected_TwoOrMoreRaces_VAP_2030 Projected Two or More Races Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2030 Projected_TotalPop_VAP_2031 Projected Total Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2031 Projected_HispanicOrLatino_VAP_2031 Projected Hispanic or Latino Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2031 Projected_WhiteAloneNotHisp_VAP_2031 Projected Non-Hispanic White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2031 Projected_WhiteAlone_VAP_2031 Projected White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2031 Projected_BlackOrAfAmAlone_VAP_2031 Projected Black or African-American Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2031 Projected_AmIndianOrAKNativeAlone_VAP_2031 Projected American Indian or Alaskan Native Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2031 Projected_AsianAlone_VAP_2031 Projected Asian Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2031 Projected_PacificIslanderAlone_VAP_2031 Projected Pacific Islander Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2031 Projected_OtherRaceAlone_VAP_2031 Projected Some Other Race Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2031 Projected_TwoOrMoreRaces_VAP_2031 Projected Two or More Races Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2031 Projected_TotalPop_VAP_2032 Projected Total Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2032 Projected_HispanicOrLatino_VAP_2032 Projected Hispanic or Latino Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2032 Projected_WhiteAloneNotHisp_VAP_2032 Projected Non-Hispanic White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2032 Projected_WhiteAlone_VAP_2032 Projected White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2032 Projected_BlackOrAfAmAlone_VAP_2032 Projected Black or African-American Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2032 Projected_AmIndianOrAKNativeAlone_VAP_2032 Projected American Indian or Alaskan Native Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2032 Projected_AsianAlone_VAP_2032 Projected Asian Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2032 Projected_PacificIslanderAlone_VAP_2032 Projected Pacific Islander Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2032 Projected_OtherRaceAlone_VAP_2032 Projected Some Other Race Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2032 Projected_TwoOrMoreRaces_VAP_2032 Projected Two or More Races Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2032 Projected_TotalPop_VAP_2033 Projected Total Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2033 Projected_HispanicOrLatino_VAP_2033 Projected Hispanic or Latino Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2033 Projected_WhiteAloneNotHisp_VAP_2033 Projected Non-Hispanic White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2033 Projected_WhiteAlone_VAP_2033 Projected White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2033 Projected_BlackOrAfAmAlone_VAP_2033 Projected Black or African-American Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2033 Projected_AmIndianOrAKNativeAlone_VAP_2033 Projected American Indian or Alaskan Native Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2033 Projected_AsianAlone_VAP_2033 Projected Asian Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2033 Projected_PacificIslanderAlone_VAP_2033 Projected Pacific Islander Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2033 Projected_OtherRaceAlone_VAP_2033 Projected Some Other Race Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2033 Projected_TwoOrMoreRaces_VAP_2033 Projected Two or More Races Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2033 Projected_TotalPop_VAP_2034 Projected Total Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2034 Projected_HispanicOrLatino_VAP_2034 Projected Hispanic or Latino Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2034 Projected_WhiteAloneNotHisp_VAP_2034 Projected Non-Hispanic White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2034 Projected_WhiteAlone_VAP_2034 Projected White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2034 Projected_BlackOrAfAmAlone_VAP_2034 Projected Black or African-American Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2034 Projected_AmIndianOrAKNativeAlone_VAP_2034 Projected American Indian or Alaskan Native Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2034 Projected_AsianAlone_VAP_2034 Projected Asian Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2034 Projected_PacificIslanderAlone_VAP_2034 Projected Pacific Islander Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2034 Projected_OtherRaceAlone_VAP_2034 Projected Some Other Race Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2034 Projected_TwoOrMoreRaces_VAP_2034 Projected Two or More Races Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2034 Projected_TotalPop_VAP_2035 Projected Total Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2035 Projected_HispanicOrLatino_VAP_2035 Projected Hispanic or Latino Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2035 Projected_WhiteAloneNotHisp_VAP_2035 Projected Non-Hispanic White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2035 Projected_WhiteAlone_VAP_2035 Projected White Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2035 Projected_BlackOrAfAmAlone_VAP_2035 Projected Black or African-American Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2035 Projected_AmIndianOrAKNativeAlone_VAP_2035 Projected American Indian or Alaskan Native Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2035 Projected_AsianAlone_VAP_2035 Projected Asian Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2035 Projected_PacificIslanderAlone_VAP_2035 Projected Pacific Islander Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2035 Projected_OtherRaceAlone_VAP_2035 Projected Some Other Race Alone Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2035 Projected_TwoOrMoreRaces_VAP_2035 Projected Two or More Races Voting Age Population (VAP) in Year 2035 ## Processing Steps Data were retrieved from the sources listed above. ACS variables were pulled from their corresponding B01001 table values at the tract level. Data for VAP by race are not readily available in these ACS tables, however, it is created by summing the male and female age group categories from 18 and over. These data are for racial categories "alone", regardless of the ethnicity question, with the exception of White Non-Hispanic and Hispanic/Latino. PL data were pulled from the corresponding P3 and P4 table values. First, the total voting age population (VAP) change was calculated between 2023 and 2020. This is a standard linear growth rate where (2023 values - 2020 values) / 2020 values * 100 = percent change. In instances of 0 in the ACS, % change is initialized to 0. In instances of 0/0, percent change is also initialized to 0. In instances where the Census data was >0 but the ACS was 0. If the tract percent change is null, the county rate is used in its place. The initial ACS data is at the tract level. These data were grouped at the county level to create county total VAPs and percent changes. For the percent changes of both the tract and county data, maximum and minimum rates of change were implemented to best reflect reasonable growth and generally align with existing population projections at the state level (minimum of -3% and maximum of 15%). The population share of the total VAP in a tract, relative to its county, is derived by dividing the ACS value by the ACS county value. The rates of change are then updated using weights and capping. The size of the population in the tract is used as a factor for determining various weights and caps. If the population being projected is under 150 in the ACS, the max growth rate is capped at 6%, populations >150 and <1000 are capped at 9% and populations 1000 or greater are capped at 12%. Likewise, for the same population counts, the minimum growth rates are capped at -1%, -2% and -3%. Weights are then computed dynamically. If the population being projected is under 100, it takes a larger share of the county rate. If it's over 1000, a larger share of the group rate is taken. Populations between 100 and 1000 are dynamically weighted given their population. The updated blended rate is returned and then annual rate of change is determined. Because we are working with population data, a compounding growth rate is used where the starting point population is multiplied by the annual percentage growth rate. Projections for (VAP) are thresholded to be within a reasonable ratio of already tabulated total population projections (65-90%) from the RDH. Projections for individual racial and ethnic categories are calculated in the same way as the total VAP, but they also use total VAP rates of change in their updated weighting. Because the data are calculated on independent ratios, they are not horizontally integrated, meaning not all racial categories sum to the total of the tract. To remedy this, a horizontal integration is performed where the values of the racial categories are adjusted to align with the total VAP using a scaling factor, where the factor = total VAP / racial category sum, and then multiplied by the categories value to get the aligned population. Due to rounding issues and preserving populations as whole integers, an additional residual correction is performed, similar to a Hamilton rounding method. Verifications were performed to ensure that all data are summed correctly. The data was also cross-referenced with alternative sources of state population projections to ensure reasonable estimates. The data were then disaggregated to the block level. The PL data is used to create a ratio with the tract level data. Block data retrieved from the Census is also grouped into tracts so a ratio is created. This ratio is then multiplied by the projected values to pull it down to the block (e.g. Total VAP 2020 at Block / Total VAP 2020 at tract * Projected Population at tract). Data are then rounded to the nearest integer at the block level. Total VAP data are then realigned to the tract populations, as these can get disrupted with the rounding, to ensure they sum properly to the tract totals using a Hamilton rounding method. Following, total VAP estimates at the block are once again thresholded to be within a reasonable ratio (65-90%) of total block level population projections. However due to the small populations of blocks, these ratios may not be exact when whole integer rounding is applied. Similarly to the process in creating the projections, because independent ratios are used the racial category populations no longer sum to the total VAP. Therefore, the same horizontal integration method is performed. Because of this change, categories besides the total VAP may not sum to estimates at other geographic levels in other datasets. Verifications were performed to ensure that all data are summed correctly and appear reasonable at various geographic levels. ## Additional Notes Visit the RDH GitHub and the processing script for this dataset [here](https://github.com/nonpartisan-redistricting-datahub) Please direct questions related to processing this dataset to info@redistrictingdatahub.org.