2020 Redistricting Data for Missouri at the District and Block level (Prison Adjusted)

These data sets include adjustments to the population to account for prisoner reallocation based on sentencing county. The population adjusted for returning prisoners to sentencing county is based on the block’s proportion of the county’s population not incarcerated in a state facility of the same race. For example, if block 1 has 1% of the county’s non-state-incarcerated white population, it receives 1% of the county’s returning white population. Our estimates may be less precise because we only adjust for state facilities and not other levels of incarceration (e.g., local jails, federal facilities). 

Additionally, our estimates are adjusted based on sentencing county, as opposed to county or block of last residence, which could affect the accuracy and/or precision of the estimates. District data includes separate tabs for house and senate districts.

##Sources
Population data were retrieved from the Census Bureau, table P2 (Hispanic or Latino, and Not Hispanic or Latino by Race) at https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=P2&tid=DECENNIALPL2020.P2

Prison addresses were retrieved from the Missouri Department of Corrections at https://doc.mo.gov/facilities/adult-institutions/address-listing 

Race by prison and race by sentencing county data were obtained through a data request from the Missouri DOC. 

2020 district data was obtained from The Redistricting Hub at https://redistrictingdatahub.org/ Maps acquired on October 26, 2022. If district boundaries have changed and you want an updated analysis, we encourage you to either use the provided raw data and update the district data or contact prisongerrymandering@gmail.com and we will update the data as soon as possible.
#Processing
The population data was recoded into four race groups to align with the racial categories provided by the state:
White is white alone, not Hispanic or Latino (p2_005n)
Latino is Hispanic or Latino (p2_002n)
Black is Black or African American alone and all multiple race categories that include Black or African American, not Hispanic or Latino (p2_006n p2_013n p2_018n p2_019n p2_020n p2_021n p2_029n p2_030n p2_031n p2_032n p2_039n p2_040n p2_041n p2_042n p2_043n p2_044n p2_050n p2_051n p2_052n p2_053n p2_054n p2_055n p2_060n p2_061n p2_062n p2_063n p2_066n p2_067n p2_068n p2_069n p2_071n p2_073n)
Other is all other race groups alone and all multiple race categories that do not include Black or African American, not Hispanic or Latino (p2_007n p2_008n p2_009n p2_010n p2_014n p2_015n p2_016n p2_017n p2_022n p2_023n p2_024n p2_025n p2_026n p2_027n p2_033n p2_034n p2_035n p2_036n p2_037n p2_038n p2_045n p2_046n p2_047n p2_048n p2_056n p2_057n p2_058n p2_059n p2_064n p2_070n)

Prison addresses were geocoded using the census geocoder at https://geocoding.geo.census.gov/geocoder/

Census FIPs codes were used to code sentencing county. 

Variable names in the Missouri block returning data are:
blockid – Census Block ID code
district_h – 2020 house district
district_s – 2020 senate district
total – Census total population
white – Census white population
black – Census black population
latino - Census Hispanic or Latino population
other – Census white population
adjtotal – Population adjusted for returning prisoners to sentencing county
adjwhite - Population adjusted for returning white prisoners to sentencing county
adjblack – Population adjusted for returning black prisoners to sentencing county
adjlatino – Population adjusted for returning Hispanic and Latino prisoners to sentencing county
adjother - Population adjusted for returning other prisoners to sentencing county

Variable names in the Missouri district reallocation results file are:
district_h – 2020 house district
district_s – 2020 senate district
total – Census total population
white – Census white population
black – Census black population
latino – Census Hispanic or Latino population
other – Census other population
pctwhite – Census percent white
adjtotal – Population adjusted for returning prisoners to sentencing county
adjwhite - Population adjusted for returning white prisoners to sentencing county
adjblack – Population adjusted for returning black prisoners to sentencing county
adjlatino – Population adjusted for returning Hispanic and Latino prisoners to sentencing county
adjother - Population adjusted for returning other prisoners to sentencing county
changepop – Adjusted population minus unadjusted population
changew – Adjusted white population minus unadjusted white population 
changeb – Adjusted black population minus unadjusted black population 
changeh - Adjusted Hispanic or Latino population minus unadjusted Hispanic or Latino population
changel – Adjusted other population minus unadjusted other population 
toosmall – district is legal too small if reallocation were required
toobig – district is legally too big if reallocation were required

Summary data in the Missouri district reallocation results are:
Total pop – Adjusted total population
Target size – Adjusted total population divided by the number of districts
5% limit – Target size divided by 5%
Min size – Target size minus the 5 percent limit. Any adjusted districts smaller than the 5% limit are legally too small if reallocation were required. 
Max size – Target size plus the 5 percent limit. Any adjusted districts larger than the 5% limit are legally too big if reallocation were required.
Average impact by race and ethnicity - The average district size change if phantom constituents were reallocated by race/ethnicity. Negative values indicate the average person of that respective race benefits from counting phantom constituents at their correctional facility; positive values indicate the average person of that respective race is harmed by counting phantom constituents as residing in a facility elsewhere.
Average adj% by race – Adjusted percent of population by race and ethnicity

##Additional Notes
The blockid in the Missouri block returning data set is displayed as scientific notation due to the csv format. This variable should be imported as string into statistical software packages or can be transformed in the csv file by formatting the variable as a custom “000000000000000” variable.

Missouri provided data that included different total populations in state facilities vs. county of origin. The raw data included 400 more individuals in the prison data than in the sentencing county data. We calculated two sets of analyses in this case. The first used the raw data provided by the state and thus the total populations are not identical. The adjusted state population includes 400 fewer residents as we were not able to return them to a county of origin. We also adjusted the total population returned to different counties by keeping the returned equal to the number subtracted but returning the original proportion to the counties. For example, if a state gave us a total prison population of 1000 and a county of origin population of 1500, we changed the returning population to 1000, so each county would receive 2/3rd of what is listed in the county of origin file. These are the “balanced” results. We provide the balanced results, unbalanced results are available upon request. 

The adjusted data may include blocks with negative numbers. This is due to a combination of factors. First, the Census’ use of “differential privacy” introduces random noise into the populations of census blocks. We cannot directly address this problem, though we note it is random and thus should, if anything, provide a more conservative estimate of the impact of prison gerrymandering than raw data would. 

Second, in many states, we did not receive the exact same data as the Census (we requested data for April 1, 2020, the day the Census gets data from every state), and this may lead to some differences in incarcerated populations. 

Less frequently, some facility addresses do not match between the Census’ group quarters populations and detailed data. Where possible, we adjusted the location to match the Census group quarters data, but in some situations, there was no population local to the facility listed in Group Quarters in the census’ data. In these cases, we have confirmed that the Census bureau does identify a facility as being in the location we identify using census block maps available at the census website (https://www.census.gov/geographies/reference-maps/2020/geo/2020-census-block-maps.html). Missouri did not have any prisons that we were not able to match to the Census Group Quarters data. All negative adjusted block populations are due to identifying a prison in the block with a population larger than the Census population.  

This file and its associated README were created by Rory Kramer, Denise Wilson and Brianna Remster of Villanova University.